Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has possesses something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
